| 1 |
It appears that markets are experiencing the “backbreaking correction” one which every bull market experiences at least once and is often mistaken for the end of the bull. While it feels like the end of the world, such corrections always end with a ma***ive reversal. Given the current overreaction to the coronavirus, there is now a 70% probability that when the Dow bottoms and reverses course; it could tack on 2200 to 3600 points within ten days. Central bankers are already talking about another version of shock and awe to boost the markets as they did back in 2009. |
| 2 |
https://yhoo.it/2W4r9GV |
| 3 |
As we stated before the goal is to lower interest rates and debase the currency and hence one can expect many shock and awe programs. |
| 4 |
A sharp pullback is still an outcome we view through a very bullish lens. The ideal setup calls for the Dow to trade to the 28,800 to 29,000 ranges, with a possible overshoot to 29,300. After that, a nice sharp pullback would set the bedrock for a surge to and possibly well past 30k. |
| 5 |
We have a stunning development the combined score of netural and bearish sentiment has surged to 80 and that is extremely telling. Consider that we are trading several 100 percentage points away from the 2009 lows and the ma***es are almost as scared as they were back in 2009. |
| 6 |
If the markets were to crash it would be the first time in history a bull market ended on a note of uncertainty. History is never kind to the crowd and we don’t think that picture will change in the near future. Market Update Oct 10, 2019 |
| 7 |
When the trend is positive (UP) train yourself to view strong pullbacks, corrections and other negative developments through a bullish lens. Anyone can panic in the face of trouble, but only the astute individual can stand still and direct their energy to spotting opportunities. Don’t do what the ma***es are trained to do, for, after all these years of panic, they have nothing to show for it. |
| 8 |
The Dow has now dipped below 27K (on a monthly basis). |
| 9 |
We see no reason to worry; investors should continue with their daily lives and focus on the things that make you smile or leave you in a peaceful state. Remember, today’s news is nothing but weaponised propaganda. Tactical Investing |
| 10 |
To embrace the “trend player” methodology, one needs to clear one’s mind from all the nonsense injected via the Ma*** media. Secondly, change the way they used to trade, and lastly, they need to understand that it takes time. Depending on how open-minded one is; the average turnaround time falls in the 4-12 week range period. Remember that nothing good comes easy, and more importantly, this change will be permanent. One will know how to fish instead of always waiting for a handout. Tactical Investing |
| 11 |
Bitcoin is finally showing strength, it has managed to stay above 3900, and this suggests that a bottom could be in for the year. There is an active zone of resistance in the 5850-6150 ranges. If it can manage a monthly close above $6150, then it will be in a position to test the 6900-7200 ranges with an overshoot to the 7500-7740 ranges |
| 12 |
In such an atmosphere, the main thing you should focus on is on the trend; if the direction is up, then use pullbacks ranging from mild to wild to add to your long positions. Hence do not let panic enter the equation if the market experiences a minor or strong pullback unless the trend changes and the trend is showing no signs of breaking. |
| 13 |
With V readings in the super Ultra-high ranges, traders should be prepared and ready to deal with volatile market swings. Until the trend changes, those shorting the markets are asking for trouble unless they are ready to move very fast |
| 14 |
So far in 2019, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has always surpa***ed those in the bullish or bearish camps, and this is very revealing. It clearly indicates that the ma***es are suffering from a long term bias and that the political landscape is messing with their ability to distinguish reality from fiction. |
| 15 |
This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion. Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one |
| 16 |
The trend is up and showing no signs of weakening. Therefore we must treat anything the media attempts to market as a disaster, as an opportunity factor. The media is an extension of the ma*** mindset. For any con, you need at least two elements, a con artist and a bunch of idiots. An observer is not part of this equation for he/she does not equate with the conman or the idiot, the observers function is to observe, and then use the data to plot the most favourable path |
| 17 |
90% of advisers, experts, financial commentators do not know what they are talking about, which means the same rules apply to the ma***es. Want proof look, go back and look at how they repeated the same nonsense each time the markets were cras***ng and or surging upwards. They screamed that the world was going to end when the markets were pulling back, and they alluded that the Milky Way was the next stop for the bull market when it was rising. In both cases, they failed to spot the so-called top or the bottom. Why do you need someone to tell you the obvious, do you need a jacka*** to tell you that the markets are cras***ng, when it is all but evident and vice versa. The only function these media wenches/experts serve is to inject emotion into the equation; make the ma***es sing right at the top and make them panic right at the bottom |
| 18 |
The average trader has a convoluted view of the markets and the world. They are forever willing to bend the definition of risk and opportunity to suit whatever perspective is taking the lead role at the moment. When prices are low, they a***ume that it is the wrong time to buy because they are bound to go lower, and when they are soaring upwards, they a***ume that it is the right time to buy because they are bound to soar even higher. The concept of risk to reward is thrown out of the window; they state they seek an opportunity with low risk, but their actions speak otherwise. No Bull Market has ever ended on a note of fear; they end when the crowd is in a state of ecstasy |
| 19 |
Ironically, in times of risk, the ma***es seek to take on more risk as opposed to taking on less risk. The ma***es beg for the opportunity to buy low and sell high, but when the moment finally arrives (and the risk factor is much lower) they baulk, and their argument is always the same “it is different this time, the market is going to crash, and we need to bail out”. However, they never put forth the same argument when the markets are racing upwards, and analysts all over the place are issuing insane targets such as $1 million (high-end price for Bitcoin, at which point we stated a top was near at hand), and they blindly a***ume the next stop is the sun or the next galaxy. Instead, the next stop is usually “h****”. |
| 20 |
Remember polarised people are the easiest individuals to manip****te and deceive. |
| 21 |
Ultimately, higher rates of polarisation could be very beneficial for the markets. Tactical Investing |
| 22 |
Despite all the drama over the past ten days (since the last update), the markets continued to trend higher, and the Nasdaq is putting in new 52 week highs, so much for the naysayer’s argument that this market was set to crash. If the Nasdaq is already surging to new highs, it indicates that there is a lot of extra cash sitting on the sidelines. Because the other indices are not trading at new highs and not all the money is directed towards the Nasdaq. It also tells us that there is a boatload of hot money waiting to be unleashed into the market; fools generally control hot money, and fools never lead the way up, they always follow. |
| 23 |
Oil is rising; the dollar is trending higher, silver is putting in what could turn out to be a very explosive pattern, and the US bond market is issuing mixed signals. It sounds like everything is out of sync, and that’s exactly why it’s not. The bull market is not dead, and the trend is showing no signs of turning negative. In short, if this pattern continues and our indicators on the monthly charts move into the oversold ranges, then Dow 30K is virtually a done deal.Tactical Investing |
| 24 |
The bull market is not dead that is the most important thing we want everyone to get from this update. If it were dead, we would be making alternative plans. The best signal that the bull market “is not dead” comes from the number of pending plays; if this bull market were dead, we would have very few plays on this list |
| 25 |
The ma*** mindset is wired to react emotionally, and therefore it’s destined to fail. |
| 26 |
As long as the trend is up, every pullback is a buying opportunity; that’s what you should focus on. |
| 27 |
We believe in the adage that an ounce of prevention is worth pound or several kgs of cure. We focus primarily on Ma*** psychology; technical analysis plays a secondary role. Ma*** Psychology is telling us that its time for defensive action. We are going to opt for safety instead of glory. Bullish readings indicate the ma***es are now very happy and to ignore that development would be foolhardy |
| 28 |
For the first time in almost two years, the bullish sentiment has soared past the 50% mark, and the combined score of the bears and neutrals has dropped below 50%. This could be the first signal indicating that the markets might experience a correction in the 15% plus ranges in 2018. We will continue to monitor the situation closely. We are going to be the first ones to tell you that if this comes to pa*** it’s going to be h****uva of buying opportunity. Tactical Investing |
| 29 |
The bitcoin mania will end badly one day; the ma***es can never win, just remember that. It might sound sad, but that’s not what we focus on, we focus on trends and reality |
| 30 |
It appears that a new trend in motion is starting to take hold in the sentiment arena; we are witnessing wild swings in sentiment. This week we have experienced another wild swing; bullish sentiment soared to 44%; it’s quite a big move from the last reading. We expect this trend to gain momentum going forward. Until the bullish sentiment surges past the 60% mark for several weeks on end, the markets are more likely to correct than crash. |
| 31 |
The combined ratio of bears and Neutrals has dropped below 60% once again, and this marks the 3rd time this has happened this year. Therefore, it’s almost a certainty that the market will experience a strong correction and the likely time frame is within the next six months |
| 32 |
On the weekly timelines, we note that the picture is very bullish. The trend is up, and so even though the MACD’s (Nasdaq) are trading in the overbought ranges on the monthly charts, the path of least resistance is up |
| 33 |
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| 34 |
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